Labour Market Evolution

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Financial extremes and uncertainty are two aspects that characterize today’s economic world. Orientation to savings and for companies offering job stability are the trends observed in various indicators – from debt level (measured as the ratio of own capital and the one borrowed) to the number of weeks needed to occupy a position especially at small companies. There are people for whom survival is measured in the ability to get food on a daily basis but also in millions spent daily to meet different needs, more or less exotic.

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2017 Report of the ILO highlights these slippages, these extremes:

  • The overall rate of unemployment will rise to 5.8% in 2017, which means 3.4 million people over 198 million people out of work in 2016.
  • In the second quarter of 2016 about 6 million people in the European Union had no job for about two years.
  • For Europe and especially Eastern Europe lower rate of unemployment is not reflected by economical growth but rather by the workforce decrease by 0.7% for 2016-2018, and partly explained by increasing the rate of emigration.
ILO Geneva – World Employment 2017

If we add these aspects and intentions mentioned by the the new US president on economic policy of the United States – referring to the surcharge rates for imports from China and Mexico; to close borders for approximately 11.5 million of undocumented immigrants, which represents about 3.5% of the US population, to focus on the strengthening of the US dollar by stimulating domestic production at the expense of imports, the economic picture globally is as complex as negative, maybe even scary for the common man, whether working in the US, Europe or Asia.

From an optimistic perspective, Romania seems to be on a roll this year, with economic growth forecast to 3.4% by „The Economist”, mainly due to consumption, which in turn has its roots in the reduction of VAT and the increase in minimum wage.

Seen from the employer’s perspective, these measures can increase the gap between companies with strong financial strength, which will increase their exponential revenue and small, that either will practice more often payment on illegal basis or minimum salary on the working document, legally and the difference in hand or be forced to close their doors.

For large companies, according to industry and the profit level they have previous set will be important the decision to invest in technology – is more efficient, more profitable to buy software, an application that makes work  for more employees than increasing salaries of existing ones under the new legislation?

On the other hand, in the small companies will matter greatly tiny balance between revenue from fiscal loosening and expenses arising from wages and in this case talkings about benefits for employees, as multinationals pay are excluded from the start. We will not talk in this situation about crisis talent, and especially of personal crisis but for multitasking and overtime to existing ones.

In such a context, it is not by chance result of the study conducted by Hypo about trends in recruitment in Romania – 57% of employers will have less than 10 new positions open to seniors with experience, but will also work to hiring juniors selected based on skills acquired from various internships or „experience” in other jobs.

Clearly the labor market is governed by a climate of instability, reflecting what is happening globally – economically and politically that’s why the only aspect that we can control as employees is to do our job in a professional manner and be open to new specializations that occur and could help us in the long term.

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* Sources for the article:

Raportul Hipo

ILO Report

Why Trump will find it hard to make economy greater

Trump’s presidency could have ‘mildly positive’ effect for the UK

The Economist: Romania will record the highest economic growth in the EU in 2017

Evoluţia cadrului fiscal, provocarea economică a oamenilor de afaceri în 2016 şi 2017

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic Policies

Photos aici

Extremele financiare si incertitudinea sunt doua aspecte ce caracterizeaza lumea economica de azi. Orientarea spre economisire si spre firme care ofera stabilitatea locului de munca sunt tendinte observabile in diversi indicatori – de la gradul de indatorare (masurat ca raport intre capitalul imprumutat si cel propriu) la numarul de saptamani necesar pentru a ocupa o pozitie mai ales la firme mai mici. Sunt oameni pentru care supravietuirea se masoara in capacitatea de a obtine hrana in mod zilnic dar si in milioane cheltuite zilnic pentru satisfacerea diferitelor nevoi, mai mult sau mai putin exotice.
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Raportul pe 2017 al Organizatiei Internationale a Muncii scoate in evidenta aceste derapaje, aceste extreme:

  • Rata globala a somajului va creste la 5.8% in 2017, ceea ce inseamna 3.4 milioane de oameni peste cei 198 de milioane de oameni fara loc de munca din 2016.
  • In al doilea trimestru al lui 2016 aproximativ 6 milioane de oameni din Uniunea Europeana nu au avut loc de munca de circa 2 ani
  • Pentru Europa si in mod deosebit Europa de Est rata mai mica a somajului nu este reflectata de cresterea economica ci mai degraba de reducerea fortei de munca cu 0.7% pentru 2016 – 2018, explicata partial si prin cresterea ratei de emigrare.

ILO Geneva – World Employment 2017

Daca adaugam acestor aspecte si intentiile mentionate de noul presedinte american privind politica economica a Statelor Unite, de a suprataxa tarifele pentru importurile din China si Mexic; de a inchide granitele pentru aproximativ 11.5 milioane de imigranti fara documente, ce reprezinta circa 3.5% din populatia SUA, de a se concentra pe intarirea dolarului american prin stimularea cresterii productiei interne in detrimentul importurilor, tabloul economic la nivel mondial este pe cat de complex pe atat de negativ, poate chiar infricosator pentru omul obisnuit, indiferent ca lucreaza in SUA, Europa sau Asia.
Dintr-o perspectiva optimista, Romania pare sa fie pe val anul acesta, cu o crestere economica prognozata la 3.4% de „The Economist”, datorata in principal consumului, care la randul sau isi are radacina in reducerea de TVA si cresterea salariului minim pe economie.
Vazute din perspectiva angajatorului, aceste masuri pot mari decalajul intre companiile puternice, cu putere financiara, care isi vor mari exponential veniturile si cele mici, care fie vor practica mai des munca la negru sau salariu pe carte de munca la nivel minim si diferenta in mana, fie vor fi nevoite sa isi inchida portile.
Pentru companiile mari, in functie de sectorul de activitate si nivelul de profit setat va fi importanta si decizia de a investi in tehnologie – este mai eficient, mai rentabil sa achizitionez un soft, o aplicatie care sa faca munca a mai multor angajati decat sa le cresc salariile celor existenti conform noilor reglementari ?
Pe de alta parte, la nivelul firmelor micute va conta foarte mult balanta intre veniturile aduse de relaxarea fiscala si cheltuielile generate de salarii si in acest caz discutii despre alte beneficii pentru angajati, asa cum ofera multinationalele, se exclud din start. Nu vom vorbi in aceasta situatie de criza de talente, cat mai ales de criza de personal sau multitasking cu ore suplimentare pentru cei existenti.
Intr-un astfel de context, nu este deloc intamplator rezultatul studiului desfasurat de Hipo in privinta tendintelor de recrutare – 57% dintre angajatori vor avea sub 10 pozitii noi deschise pentru seniori cu experienta, dar se vor preocupa de angajarea juniorilor, selectati pe baza abilitatilor dobandite din diverse stagii de practica sau „experienta” din alte locuri de munca.
In mod cert piata fortei de munca este guvernata de un climat de instabilitate, reflectand ceea ce se intampla la nivel global – economic si politic de accea singurul aspect pe care il putem controla in calitate de angajati este sa ne facem treaba intr-un mod profesionist si sa fim deschisi la specializarile noi care apar si ne-ar putea ajuta pe termen lung.
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